Despite a series of successful legal appeals, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) leader Imran Khan is expected to remain in prison for the foreseeable future, according to the latest country risk report by Business Monitor International (BMI), a division of the Fitch credit ratings agency. The comprehensive report, which includes forecasts extending to 2033, provides an in-depth analysis of Pakistan’s political and economic landscape.
Recently, an Islamabad district and sessions court accepted appeals filed by Khan and his spouse, annulling their convictions in the Iddat case. This decision appeared to clear the last remaining legal obstacle keeping Khan incarcerated. Moreover, Khan’s sentences in the Toshakhana cases were suspended, and the Islamabad High Court (IHC) acquitted him in the cipher case. Various courts also cleared him of several other charges filed since his initial arrest on May 9, 2023, an event that sparked nationwide riots and a subsequent state crackdown on him and his party.
However, shortly after his acquittal in the Iddat case, the National Accountability Bureau (NAB) re-arrested Khan and his spouse in a new Toshakhana case, complicating his prospects for release. BMI’s report underscores that despite his legal wins, Khan is likely to remain imprisoned due to new charges brought against him.
“Although opposition leader Imran Khan has recently won several legal appeals, we expect that he will remain in prison over the foreseeable future,” the report states. Analysts were reportedly surprised by the judicial decisions to quash two of the legal cases against Khan, as judges were expected to side with the government.
BMI further elaborates that even if Pakistan’s judicial system, which typically aligns with government interests, were to overturn all charges against Khan, the government would likely file new cases to prevent his release.
In a broader political analysis, BMI predicts that the Shehbaz Sharif-led coalition government will remain in power over the next 18 months, successfully implementing IMF-mandated fiscal reforms. The report cites the support of influential powers behind the Pakistan Muslim League (N)-led government and the inability of Khan’s supporters to organise large-scale protests as key factors for this political stability.
However, the report cautions that the government could collapse if there is a significant increase in violence or an economic crisis that triggers widespread protests. It also suggests that fresh elections are unlikely, as another election could potentially enable Khan’s allies to secure a parliamentary majority.
Economically, BMI forecasts that Pakistan’s real GDP growth will average 3.5 per cent over the next decade. The report warns of potential setbacks such as declining agricultural production, currency weakness, and political instability — factors that previously stalled growth in 2022-23. Persistent political risk will continue to pressure the Pakistani rupee, the report notes.
BMI concludes that while Khan remains a popular political figure, his imprisonment poses challenges for the government in implementing difficult fiscal reforms. “The economic recovery is fragile, and another shock could quickly escalate the cost of servicing Pakistan’s large government debt burden,” the report adds.
PTI opposes appointment of Ad Hoc Judges in Supreme Court
The Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) has voiced strong opposition to the appointment of ad hoc judges in the Supreme Court (SC), labelling the move as fundamentally dishonest. PTI Chairman Barrister Gohar addressed a press conference in Islamabad, emphasising that the issue has been referred to the Supreme Judicial Council to prevent what he described as an attempt to install “like-minded judges.”
“Four judges are being appointed during the holidays. The matter of judges should not be made controversial,” Barrister Gohar stated, underscoring the party’s concerns over the integrity of the judicial appointment process.
PTI leader Omar Ayub also criticised the perceived fabrication of cases against the party’s National Assembly members. He denounced the cases against Khan and other PTI leaders as baseless accusations aimed at damaging their reputations. Ayub specifically highlighted the re-arrest of Bushra Bibi by the National Accountability Bureau (NAB) on what he termed false charges. Addressing Chief Justice Qazi Faez Isa, Ayub requested that PTI’s cases not be heard by ad hoc judges.
“No one can point fingers at our patriotism,” Ayub declared, defending the party’s stance and loyalty to the nation.
Senator Shibli Faraz added to the criticism, expressing concern over the deteriorating state of affairs in the country. He argued that the system had been severely damaged over the past two years, pointing to the ruling elite’s failure to understand the importance of public opinion and cautioning against any attempts to impose restrictions on the party.
Echoing these sentiments, PTI leader Asad Qaiser lamented the prevailing anarchy in the country, asserting that Pakistan has become a lawless land where coercion and extortion prevail unchecked.
The PTI’s stance reflects a broader discontent with recent judicial and political developments, highlighting the party’s ongoing struggle against what it perceives as systemic injustices and attempts to undermine its leadership. As Pakistan navigates these turbulent times, the dynamics between the judiciary and political entities will be crucial in shaping the country’s future.